Great piece of consolidated studies. I'm not a climate scientist but trained to work with data. The NOAA sea level data at all stations globally but especially The Battery in NYC because of its recording history from 1850's are rising but linear i.e., Y = mx +b. CO2, also supplied by NOAA, has risen ~30%+ but quadradically, meaning y = ax*x + bx + c. They are visually displayed a long straight trend from 1850's for sea level with a decided upward curve for CO2 from 1956.
By thinking of sea level as a proxy for global warming, it is simple to see that CO2 has zero effect over this period. This is the simplest display to produce but in itself speaks volumes.
I am extremely sceptical about the claim that humanity by using fuels which create CO2 is causing the climate to change. As a hypothesis, the AGW proponents have surely got to explain why, when the climate has varied for in a myriad of ways over all the history of the Earth with no human input, now it is different. They also have to make the case that the predicted climate is going to be a bad thing for humanity. They further have to be very sure about this given the vast resources being pumped into changing our way of life.
The sceptics amongst us have no obligation to provide a definitive explanation. The various hypotheses are interesting but make little difference to the central fact – climate has changed over geological eras and throughout human history – today is no different.
I opened the video of Dr. Vinos on youtube. There is a message underneath by the UN saying "hey, don't think, climate change is man-made". Just like "hey, don't think, gey your damn shot".
Great post. Hits all the high points. Cosmic ray/cloud hypothesis seems undeniably true as the primary driver of temperature on the earth. Ocean circulation changes are a more proximate manifestation of CR modulated temperature on the decadal timescale associated with the 11-year solar cycle. Pull back to the millennial timescales – 10, 20, 100 thousand years – a million years – unresolved, the solar forcings are noise. Here, the periodic Milankovitch orbital forcings dominate the proxy temperature isotope record. Glacial-interglacial cycles are driven by our planet’s orbital motions – eccentricity, obliquity, and precession. These orbital cycles conspire by modulating insolation in the higher latitudes to drive our climate to oscillate between cold ice expansion periods and warmer receding ice periods through an ice-albedo feedback loop. We have experienced these oscillations for more than 3 million years. So, where is the cosmic ray connection for longer term climate changes? Solar activity changes act like a variable attenuator. Higher solar activity deflects more lower energy cosmic rays away from the inner solar system driving fewer clouds and warmer temperatures. Lower solar activity means less shielding, more cosmic rays, more clouds and cooler climates. While perhaps important here on the ground, that couple of degrees is a drop in the bucket compared to the vastly larger cosmic ray background influence. The cosmic ray “background” sets the earth’s temperature. As the CR background increases – more ionization, more clouds and cooler climates. This is the driver of the overall climate state. State 1: Hothouse (low CR). State 2” Ice House (high CR). Within the Ice House we see the periodic signature of the Ice Age set into motion by that critical level of galactic cosmic radiation and the resulting critical temperature.
There are so many variables when it comes to "predicting" weather/climate. Seriously, I've never seen an completely accurate forecast of the day's or week's "weather" (not to mention the weather can be different just a mile or less away from my location), but we are to believe it's possible to accurately predict what the weather or climate will be years, months, decades, and eons into the future? There seems to be a level of arrogance in those who are in the human-caused "climate change" cult that is much more predictable than the weather...
Hi Stephen, a very convincing study. I‘m very much on your wavelength.
I’m a confirmed “climate change denier” and “Covid conspiracy theorist”. I met Joel Smalley online while we were both trying to make sense of the high numbers of “Covid” deaths reported in care homes soon after the rollout of the Covid jabs.
Joel is primarily a statistician and has posted extensively on Covid from the very beginning. He has very kindly hosted various emails I wrote quizzing various politicians on their unfathomable handling of Covid. Later on, he hosted my emails on the subject of “climate change”.
As an engineer, not a scientist, my debunking of climate change is driven mostly by sceptical BS detection and common-sense syntheses of the works of contrarian scientists such as Svensmark. Here’s my “Debunking the climate change hoax”: https://metatron.substack.com/p/debunking-the-climate-change-hoax.
I wasted many years thinking I could persuade politicians to understand that their climate change policies were certain to wreck the economy. My eyes were opened by the Covid “plandemic” to the realisation that wrecking the economy seems to be the plan all along.
Here’s a couple of recent posts on Net Zero, also containing a few digs on the plandemic to let them know that some of us haven’t forgotten:
Doug thanks for your significant and considered response. I have read some of your excellent work on the climate change "hoax". From my standpoint I have been in denial about how fear and false beliefs influence mankind but the pandemic was a rude awakening. Friends that I had previously considered rationale went completely mad and placed their trust in the "experts" and unproven remedies. My biggest concern is that "science" and trust will be broken for some significant period and this may be used by corrupt regimes to gain control. My work during the pandemic revealed some really interesting information on the transmission of respiratory diseases which aligned strongly with the outstanding research performed by the Cirensester based doctor Robert Edgar Hope Simpson (+ the Russian D.B. Golubev). The fact that this work (Transmission of Influenza 1992) has largely been forgotten is a tragedy in itself and illustrates how difficult it it is to deviate mankind from the illusion of control a common theme between climate and covid. Steve Andrews (Author) ps I enjoyed playing golf at Nairn and the wonderful beach.
Of course as with the issue wrt the existence of Covid--a major issue is that "their" proposed solutions are worse than any issue---and in this case, more environmentally damaging than the alleged cause -man made CO2.
I will now explain why EVs - which are not in any way shape or form 'Green' - exist.
And why the Ministry of Truth runs endless hype campaigns promoting planet-saving EVs and why governments subsidize them to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars.
Consider this statement: We are steaming oil out of sand, drilling miles beneath oceans for oil, drilling hundreds of thousands of holes in the ground, dropping in bombs - then sucking up the dregs. And we can’t wait to start mining the Arctic, one of the most inhospitable regions of the planet, for oil.
Surely, given we are completely reliant on fossil fuel energy to power our civilization we should be concerned that these methods of oil extraction appear to be to put it bluntly... desperate.
Surely any objective observer would look at this and think.... hmmm.... if there is so much of the easy stuff remaining ... why we do we steam oil out of sand?
This is where the lunatics (or trolls) chyme in and scream “oil is abiotic - the oil wells refill’ Except that they are not refilling and we continue to steam oil out of sand.
COVID and the ULTIMATE EXTINCTION PLAN UEP - by Fast Eddy image 4
The thing is ... we are desperate.
Conventional Oil Sources peaked in 2008 and the Shale binge has now spoiled US reserves, top investor warns Financial Times.
Preface. Conventional crude oil production may have already peaked in 2008 at 69.5million barrels per day (mb/d) according to Europe’s International Energy Agency (IEA 2018 p45). The U.S. Energy Information Agency shows global peak crude oil production at a later date in 2018 at 82.9mb/d (EIA 2020) because they included tight oil, oil sands, and deep-sea oil. Though it will take several years of lower oil production to be sure the peak occurred. Regardless, world production has been on a plateau since 2005.
What’s saved the world from oil decline was unconventional tight “fracked” oil, which accounted for 63% of total U.S. crude oil production in 2019 and 83% of global oil growth from 2009 to 2019. So it’s a big deal if we’ve reached the peak of fracked oil, because that is also the peak of both conventional and unconventional oil and the decline of all oil in the future.
Some key points from this Financial Times article.
So how do EVs fit into this equation ... and renewable energy... and what about climate change????
These are what I refer to as The Three Pillars of Bullshit.
It goes like this. The Men Who Run the World need their barnyard animals to remain productive... positive... happy. If the animals were to get wind of the desperate situation with respect to energy they would get spooked... in fact they would panic.
And panicked barnyard animals are NOT productive animals. If they conclude that the cheap and easy energy are on the downslope ... they fall into despair. They begin to believe there is no future. Why breed - why study - why invest? Alcoholism and drug abuse would explode. And the global economy (and civilization) would prematurely collapse.
Barnyard animals MUST believe the future is awesome --- they must believe their progeny will have the same opportunities to pillage and fill their garages lots and lots of stuff from Walmart. More is non-negotiable… a god-given right!
The Men Who Run the World - and their minions (the Deep State)... are very much aware of this.
They need to cover up the desperate situation with some fancy PR.
One bright young thing in the Ministry of Truth -- which was tasked with the coverup ... suggested inventing this thing call Global Warming (they changed it to Climate Change cuz some places were cooling .. no problemo, the barnyard animals will believe whatever cnnbbc tells them).
Al Gore was initially reluctant to be the front man but when he was told that he could make big money with side grifting renewable energy, he signed up, hopped on his private jet and began a decades long world tour.
Notice how fossil fuels are now The Enemy? We Must wean off them? No mention of the fact that they are in deep depletion... that's a no-no. Instead they are evil -- we must ditch them... we don’t need them!
Enter renewable energy --- even though transitioning to renewables is IMPOSSIBLE
Doesn't matter.
The Ministry of Truth overcomes this by pounding the barnyard animals with messaging (and catch phrases)... convincing them that we are on the path to a green wonderful future -- where everyone gets to buy loads of stuff - HURRAH!!! HURRAH!!! High fives all around.
Let's insert EVs here... ICE vehicles are EVIL. We must transition to EV's ... Zero Emissions. Even though they are charged and manufactured with fossil fuels ... But..BUT ... eventually we will phase out fossil fuels and go totally green.
Like I said, transitioning to renewable energy (which is not actually renewable because solar panels don’t grow on trees) is IMPOSSIBLE.
Governments know this ... the bosses of governments (The Men Who Run the World) know this ... of course they do -- they are not stupid.
But they also know that they MUST ensure that the barnyard animals remain hopeful ... positive... productive... otherwise civilization collapses. And the Men Who Run the World don’t get to enjoy fine wine, private jet travel, and nubile 15 yr olds.
They cannot be allowed to understand that we are f789ed.
Because they cannot handle the truth… unless it involves a Hollywood ending.
Notice how the Ministry of Truth is now u-turning on EVs? The thing is… that lie can only be taken so far because the power grids around the world (fuelled primarily by coal, gas and uranium) cannot be scaled up to provide the electricity required to charge the EVs. Therefore the brakes are being applied.
Conventional oil production peaked nearly 20 years ago, we have been desperately cannibalizing nuclear war heads to fuel reactors, and shale oil production is now declining. Renewable energy is nothing more than a mirage of hopium.
The fourth horseman of the apocalypse is now mounted - natural gas production is contracting.
It is also important how much heat is coming from the earth’s core, which since 1995 has been increasing, due to shifts in seismic and volcanic activity.
Great piece of consolidated studies. I'm not a climate scientist but trained to work with data. The NOAA sea level data at all stations globally but especially The Battery in NYC because of its recording history from 1850's are rising but linear i.e., Y = mx +b. CO2, also supplied by NOAA, has risen ~30%+ but quadradically, meaning y = ax*x + bx + c. They are visually displayed a long straight trend from 1850's for sea level with a decided upward curve for CO2 from 1956.
By thinking of sea level as a proxy for global warming, it is simple to see that CO2 has zero effect over this period. This is the simplest display to produce but in itself speaks volumes.
I am extremely sceptical about the claim that humanity by using fuels which create CO2 is causing the climate to change. As a hypothesis, the AGW proponents have surely got to explain why, when the climate has varied for in a myriad of ways over all the history of the Earth with no human input, now it is different. They also have to make the case that the predicted climate is going to be a bad thing for humanity. They further have to be very sure about this given the vast resources being pumped into changing our way of life.
The sceptics amongst us have no obligation to provide a definitive explanation. The various hypotheses are interesting but make little difference to the central fact – climate has changed over geological eras and throughout human history – today is no different.
I opened the video of Dr. Vinos on youtube. There is a message underneath by the UN saying "hey, don't think, climate change is man-made". Just like "hey, don't think, gey your damn shot".
Great post. Hits all the high points. Cosmic ray/cloud hypothesis seems undeniably true as the primary driver of temperature on the earth. Ocean circulation changes are a more proximate manifestation of CR modulated temperature on the decadal timescale associated with the 11-year solar cycle. Pull back to the millennial timescales – 10, 20, 100 thousand years – a million years – unresolved, the solar forcings are noise. Here, the periodic Milankovitch orbital forcings dominate the proxy temperature isotope record. Glacial-interglacial cycles are driven by our planet’s orbital motions – eccentricity, obliquity, and precession. These orbital cycles conspire by modulating insolation in the higher latitudes to drive our climate to oscillate between cold ice expansion periods and warmer receding ice periods through an ice-albedo feedback loop. We have experienced these oscillations for more than 3 million years. So, where is the cosmic ray connection for longer term climate changes? Solar activity changes act like a variable attenuator. Higher solar activity deflects more lower energy cosmic rays away from the inner solar system driving fewer clouds and warmer temperatures. Lower solar activity means less shielding, more cosmic rays, more clouds and cooler climates. While perhaps important here on the ground, that couple of degrees is a drop in the bucket compared to the vastly larger cosmic ray background influence. The cosmic ray “background” sets the earth’s temperature. As the CR background increases – more ionization, more clouds and cooler climates. This is the driver of the overall climate state. State 1: Hothouse (low CR). State 2” Ice House (high CR). Within the Ice House we see the periodic signature of the Ice Age set into motion by that critical level of galactic cosmic radiation and the resulting critical temperature.
There are so many variables when it comes to "predicting" weather/climate. Seriously, I've never seen an completely accurate forecast of the day's or week's "weather" (not to mention the weather can be different just a mile or less away from my location), but we are to believe it's possible to accurately predict what the weather or climate will be years, months, decades, and eons into the future? There seems to be a level of arrogance in those who are in the human-caused "climate change" cult that is much more predictable than the weather...
Hi Stephen, a very convincing study. I‘m very much on your wavelength.
I’m a confirmed “climate change denier” and “Covid conspiracy theorist”. I met Joel Smalley online while we were both trying to make sense of the high numbers of “Covid” deaths reported in care homes soon after the rollout of the Covid jabs.
Joel is primarily a statistician and has posted extensively on Covid from the very beginning. He has very kindly hosted various emails I wrote quizzing various politicians on their unfathomable handling of Covid. Later on, he hosted my emails on the subject of “climate change”.
As an engineer, not a scientist, my debunking of climate change is driven mostly by sceptical BS detection and common-sense syntheses of the works of contrarian scientists such as Svensmark. Here’s my “Debunking the climate change hoax”: https://metatron.substack.com/p/debunking-the-climate-change-hoax.
I wasted many years thinking I could persuade politicians to understand that their climate change policies were certain to wreck the economy. My eyes were opened by the Covid “plandemic” to the realisation that wrecking the economy seems to be the plan all along.
Here’s a couple of recent posts on Net Zero, also containing a few digs on the plandemic to let them know that some of us haven’t forgotten:
Climate Change and the corruption of science: https://metatron.substack.com/p/climate-change-and-the-corruption.
Climate Change and the corruption of science Part 2: https://metatron.substack.com/p/climate-change-and-the-corruption-494.
Doug thanks for your significant and considered response. I have read some of your excellent work on the climate change "hoax". From my standpoint I have been in denial about how fear and false beliefs influence mankind but the pandemic was a rude awakening. Friends that I had previously considered rationale went completely mad and placed their trust in the "experts" and unproven remedies. My biggest concern is that "science" and trust will be broken for some significant period and this may be used by corrupt regimes to gain control. My work during the pandemic revealed some really interesting information on the transmission of respiratory diseases which aligned strongly with the outstanding research performed by the Cirensester based doctor Robert Edgar Hope Simpson (+ the Russian D.B. Golubev). The fact that this work (Transmission of Influenza 1992) has largely been forgotten is a tragedy in itself and illustrates how difficult it it is to deviate mankind from the illusion of control a common theme between climate and covid. Steve Andrews (Author) ps I enjoyed playing golf at Nairn and the wonderful beach.
Of course as with the issue wrt the existence of Covid--a major issue is that "their" proposed solutions are worse than any issue---and in this case, more environmentally damaging than the alleged cause -man made CO2.
The Three Pillars of Bullshit
I will now explain why EVs - which are not in any way shape or form 'Green' - exist.
And why the Ministry of Truth runs endless hype campaigns promoting planet-saving EVs and why governments subsidize them to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars.
Consider this statement: We are steaming oil out of sand, drilling miles beneath oceans for oil, drilling hundreds of thousands of holes in the ground, dropping in bombs - then sucking up the dregs. And we can’t wait to start mining the Arctic, one of the most inhospitable regions of the planet, for oil.
Surely, given we are completely reliant on fossil fuel energy to power our civilization we should be concerned that these methods of oil extraction appear to be to put it bluntly... desperate.
Surely any objective observer would look at this and think.... hmmm.... if there is so much of the easy stuff remaining ... why we do we steam oil out of sand?
This is where the lunatics (or trolls) chyme in and scream “oil is abiotic - the oil wells refill’ Except that they are not refilling and we continue to steam oil out of sand.
COVID and the ULTIMATE EXTINCTION PLAN UEP - by Fast Eddy image 4
The thing is ... we are desperate.
Conventional Oil Sources peaked in 2008 and the Shale binge has now spoiled US reserves, top investor warns Financial Times.
Preface. Conventional crude oil production may have already peaked in 2008 at 69.5million barrels per day (mb/d) according to Europe’s International Energy Agency (IEA 2018 p45). The U.S. Energy Information Agency shows global peak crude oil production at a later date in 2018 at 82.9mb/d (EIA 2020) because they included tight oil, oil sands, and deep-sea oil. Though it will take several years of lower oil production to be sure the peak occurred. Regardless, world production has been on a plateau since 2005.
What’s saved the world from oil decline was unconventional tight “fracked” oil, which accounted for 63% of total U.S. crude oil production in 2019 and 83% of global oil growth from 2009 to 2019. So it’s a big deal if we’ve reached the peak of fracked oil, because that is also the peak of both conventional and unconventional oil and the decline of all oil in the future.
Some key points from this Financial Times article.
So how do EVs fit into this equation ... and renewable energy... and what about climate change????
These are what I refer to as The Three Pillars of Bullshit.
It goes like this. The Men Who Run the World need their barnyard animals to remain productive... positive... happy. If the animals were to get wind of the desperate situation with respect to energy they would get spooked... in fact they would panic.
And panicked barnyard animals are NOT productive animals. If they conclude that the cheap and easy energy are on the downslope ... they fall into despair. They begin to believe there is no future. Why breed - why study - why invest? Alcoholism and drug abuse would explode. And the global economy (and civilization) would prematurely collapse.
Barnyard animals MUST believe the future is awesome --- they must believe their progeny will have the same opportunities to pillage and fill their garages lots and lots of stuff from Walmart. More is non-negotiable… a god-given right!
The Men Who Run the World - and their minions (the Deep State)... are very much aware of this.
They need to cover up the desperate situation with some fancy PR.
One bright young thing in the Ministry of Truth -- which was tasked with the coverup ... suggested inventing this thing call Global Warming (they changed it to Climate Change cuz some places were cooling .. no problemo, the barnyard animals will believe whatever cnnbbc tells them).
Al Gore was initially reluctant to be the front man but when he was told that he could make big money with side grifting renewable energy, he signed up, hopped on his private jet and began a decades long world tour.
Notice how fossil fuels are now The Enemy? We Must wean off them? No mention of the fact that they are in deep depletion... that's a no-no. Instead they are evil -- we must ditch them... we don’t need them!
Enter renewable energy --- even though transitioning to renewables is IMPOSSIBLE
Doesn't matter.
The Ministry of Truth overcomes this by pounding the barnyard animals with messaging (and catch phrases)... convincing them that we are on the path to a green wonderful future -- where everyone gets to buy loads of stuff - HURRAH!!! HURRAH!!! High fives all around.
Let's insert EVs here... ICE vehicles are EVIL. We must transition to EV's ... Zero Emissions. Even though they are charged and manufactured with fossil fuels ... But..BUT ... eventually we will phase out fossil fuels and go totally green.
Like I said, transitioning to renewable energy (which is not actually renewable because solar panels don’t grow on trees) is IMPOSSIBLE.
Governments know this ... the bosses of governments (The Men Who Run the World) know this ... of course they do -- they are not stupid.
But they also know that they MUST ensure that the barnyard animals remain hopeful ... positive... productive... otherwise civilization collapses. And the Men Who Run the World don’t get to enjoy fine wine, private jet travel, and nubile 15 yr olds.
They cannot be allowed to understand that we are f789ed.
Because they cannot handle the truth… unless it involves a Hollywood ending.
Notice how the Ministry of Truth is now u-turning on EVs? The thing is… that lie can only be taken so far because the power grids around the world (fuelled primarily by coal, gas and uranium) cannot be scaled up to provide the electricity required to charge the EVs. Therefore the brakes are being applied.
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/the-three-pillars-of-bullshit
Conventional oil production peaked nearly 20 years ago, we have been desperately cannibalizing nuclear war heads to fuel reactors, and shale oil production is now declining. Renewable energy is nothing more than a mirage of hopium.
The fourth horseman of the apocalypse is now mounted - natural gas production is contracting.
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/natural-gas-production-is-contracting
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/norway-warns-its-oil-and-gas-production
https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/is-russia-running-out-of-gas
https://timothywiney.substack.com/p/my-co-authors-new-paper
https://rumble.com/v5oclye-climate-crisis-and-ocean-pollution-documentary-allatra-at-un-summit-cop16.html
It is also important how much heat is coming from the earth’s core, which since 1995 has been increasing, due to shifts in seismic and volcanic activity.