What everyone seems to ignore is the fact that the source of both COVID-19 and the mRNA injection are from the same group  that are trying to build profit and reduce world population. Both contain the same spike protein just in different quantities. As Tennessee Ernie Ford used to sing if the first one don’t get you the second one will.
Boy, I wish I had this available about a year ago when arguing with a med student on the efficacy of masks against viruses. He stated the fact that flu had disappeared during covid was proof masks worked against viruses. Ignoring for the moment that if they worked against the flu so well that it disappeared, why then is covid still spreading, I brought up this condition you describe of one infectious agent suppressing others. The med student said I didn’t know what I was talking about, that no such thing exists.
Not to take away from your excellent research, but it's "toe the line", not "tow the line". It comes from holding a footrace, and "toeing" the starting line. ;-)
Stephen the "seasonal signal" that Hope-Simpson was looking for is almost certainly just temperature.
Respiratory viruses need to keep out of our lungs/sinuses etc, in order to keep us moving around. They (almost all) seem to do this by sensing temperature - they are more active below the normal body temperature of their host.
What Hope-Simpson didn't get is that resp viruses adapt to their local climate and season in a few months by gaining or losing thermal sensitivity. They have to lose thermal sensitivity in the Tropics in order to replicate at all. In cold regions nearer the poles they have to gain thermal sensitivity to stop us going to bed very quickly with a fever and not spreading the virus much.
CoV-2 (and influenza etc) is thermally sensitive in the wet-lab and in animals:
Does "pathogenic interference" counter allegations that the March 2020 changes in disease reporting protocols allowed central planners to "muscle out" other seasonal respiratory illnesses and propel the novel virus, lockdown narrative?
Without commenting on your analysis, which seems excellent, I want to make another point. This point seems more and more unassailable to me, as the days since the advent of the Great Covid Dumpster Fire go by. How the absolute freaking hell did the B.S. that is mistaken for public health succeed for so long, when there are people like you and so many others, including Joel, out here to show the folly? I realize the scam runs deep, but seriously, Dr. Fauci is a moron compared to many folks writing on Substack. Are we, as a species, that stupid? (Don't answer that!)
"The chemical signalling that exists between viruses, hosts and bacteria have been known for very many years (7). This was ignored during the pandemic. If you are interested in learning more about the fascinating phenomena of pathogen interference" if you or another substacker can undertake or share such analysis for a lay audience I, for one, would be very interested to read it x
That is worthy of consideration as a cause for this observed decrease in influenza cases prior to the official presence of COVID.
I had a patient almost die in a local teaching hospital of something that seemed like a viral pneumonia, but moved to his kidneys and circulatory system, almost killing him, in mid November to mid December 2019. The only thing they found was "coronavirus" which was still "just a form of common cold", until a month later.
How much extrapolation was done to get to 17 billion 'flu cases a year? How many were actually colds (man 'flu) and not actually 'flu? US numbers indicate that the pneumonia component of the flu/pneumonia reporting method is a around 95 to 5 pneumonia to flu ratio.
For the C19 dominance of ;flu issue - how much of this is due to false testing using a Drosten RT-PCR test - with 'flu cases being reported as SARS-COV2? Did the testing stop looking for 'flu?
I think the premise that C19 was circulating way before - at least the summer of 2019 - is valid. I wonder if the same testing standards were applied a decade before (over 2009-2018 for example) using the Drosten RT-PCR test, that the virus would have been "detected" then.
Then, again as a lay person, I wonder that if the 2.2 'flu infections is accurate, maybe, just maybe, 'flu is a normal response by the bodies immune system to rid itself of what it doesn't like - in other words, simply discharging excesses accumulated. Totally natural and required for survival of any species.
Lastly, I also wonder if flu prevalence is directly correlated to the levels of "vaccines" - as far as I can make out, the success of 'flu vaccines is a coin toss, based on inoculating against strains guessed to be circulating next years 9and using southern hemisphere as a base - though why the reverse isn't true is beyond me!). The 'flu vaccines may have similar side effects as far as adverse events are concerned and I note that no work is undertaken to correlate the long term effects of contaminants in the flu vaccine and the vaccine itself - with autism, Alzheimer's, ADHD, heart disease and other leading causes of death and disability.
So, that's one lay person's perspective! Which explains why I am just that!
What everyone seems to ignore is the fact that the source of both COVID-19 and the mRNA injection are from the same group  that are trying to build profit and reduce world population. Both contain the same spike protein just in different quantities. As Tennessee Ernie Ford used to sing if the first one don’t get you the second one will.
Boy, I wish I had this available about a year ago when arguing with a med student on the efficacy of masks against viruses. He stated the fact that flu had disappeared during covid was proof masks worked against viruses. Ignoring for the moment that if they worked against the flu so well that it disappeared, why then is covid still spreading, I brought up this condition you describe of one infectious agent suppressing others. The med student said I didn’t know what I was talking about, that no such thing exists.
Not to take away from your excellent research, but it's "toe the line", not "tow the line". It comes from holding a footrace, and "toeing" the starting line. ;-)
Stephen the "seasonal signal" that Hope-Simpson was looking for is almost certainly just temperature.
Respiratory viruses need to keep out of our lungs/sinuses etc, in order to keep us moving around. They (almost all) seem to do this by sensing temperature - they are more active below the normal body temperature of their host.
What Hope-Simpson didn't get is that resp viruses adapt to their local climate and season in a few months by gaining or losing thermal sensitivity. They have to lose thermal sensitivity in the Tropics in order to replicate at all. In cold regions nearer the poles they have to gain thermal sensitivity to stop us going to bed very quickly with a fever and not spreading the virus much.
CoV-2 (and influenza etc) is thermally sensitive in the wet-lab and in animals:
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.imj.2022.08.005
Or review: https://doi.org/10.1002/rmv.2241
Does "pathogenic interference" counter allegations that the March 2020 changes in disease reporting protocols allowed central planners to "muscle out" other seasonal respiratory illnesses and propel the novel virus, lockdown narrative?
Without commenting on your analysis, which seems excellent, I want to make another point. This point seems more and more unassailable to me, as the days since the advent of the Great Covid Dumpster Fire go by. How the absolute freaking hell did the B.S. that is mistaken for public health succeed for so long, when there are people like you and so many others, including Joel, out here to show the folly? I realize the scam runs deep, but seriously, Dr. Fauci is a moron compared to many folks writing on Substack. Are we, as a species, that stupid? (Don't answer that!)
"The chemical signalling that exists between viruses, hosts and bacteria have been known for very many years (7). This was ignored during the pandemic. If you are interested in learning more about the fascinating phenomena of pathogen interference" if you or another substacker can undertake or share such analysis for a lay audience I, for one, would be very interested to read it x
Thank you for your excellent post.
Great article, but:
s/to tow the line/to toe the line/
You put your toes on the line to line up in a row in the military.
The Ethical Skeptic makes a very well substantiated case that SARS-Cov2 could well have been circulating since early 2018. https://theethicalskeptic.com/2021/11/15/chinas-ccp-concealed-sars-cov-2-presence-in-china-as-far-back-as-march-2018/
That is worthy of consideration as a cause for this observed decrease in influenza cases prior to the official presence of COVID.
I had a patient almost die in a local teaching hospital of something that seemed like a viral pneumonia, but moved to his kidneys and circulatory system, almost killing him, in mid November to mid December 2019. The only thing they found was "coronavirus" which was still "just a form of common cold", until a month later.
Interesting!
As a lay person, my first reactions were:
How much extrapolation was done to get to 17 billion 'flu cases a year? How many were actually colds (man 'flu) and not actually 'flu? US numbers indicate that the pneumonia component of the flu/pneumonia reporting method is a around 95 to 5 pneumonia to flu ratio.
For the C19 dominance of ;flu issue - how much of this is due to false testing using a Drosten RT-PCR test - with 'flu cases being reported as SARS-COV2? Did the testing stop looking for 'flu?
I think the premise that C19 was circulating way before - at least the summer of 2019 - is valid. I wonder if the same testing standards were applied a decade before (over 2009-2018 for example) using the Drosten RT-PCR test, that the virus would have been "detected" then.
I wonder how many reports of work in the Ukraine bio-labs has been "black noticed" and suppressed. See here: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/P-8-2016-000636_EN.html?redirect
Then, again as a lay person, I wonder that if the 2.2 'flu infections is accurate, maybe, just maybe, 'flu is a normal response by the bodies immune system to rid itself of what it doesn't like - in other words, simply discharging excesses accumulated. Totally natural and required for survival of any species.
Lastly, I also wonder if flu prevalence is directly correlated to the levels of "vaccines" - as far as I can make out, the success of 'flu vaccines is a coin toss, based on inoculating against strains guessed to be circulating next years 9and using southern hemisphere as a base - though why the reverse isn't true is beyond me!). The 'flu vaccines may have similar side effects as far as adverse events are concerned and I note that no work is undertaken to correlate the long term effects of contaminants in the flu vaccine and the vaccine itself - with autism, Alzheimer's, ADHD, heart disease and other leading causes of death and disability.
So, that's one lay person's perspective! Which explains why I am just that!
What does such a streamgraph look like for earlier time periods? What is the Y axis?
(ie: what are the seasonal patterns for normal years)